At Canada Sports Betting, we analyse odds for a living.
We apply the same framework to sports, elections, and financial markets. When Netflix started cancelling shows at record pace, we pointed the same lens at their renewal data.
We tracked 52 Netflix originals. 18 are cancelled. 26 are renewed. 7 are still waiting.
Each show below has an Implied Probability of Cancellation, built from four verified data points: how long Netflix has gone silent, chart performance, critic and audience scores, and live IMDb popularity. Every number pulled directly from source on June 30, 2026.
Boots doubled its audience week on week. Netflix cancelled it anyway.
Hover any column header to see how each data point affects the probability.
Netflix · Comedy Drama · 79.33% · 1.26
Premiered February 12. 138 days of silence from Netflix.
Never appeared in the Global Top 10. Anywhere. Once.
Reviews are strong: 95% critic, 79% audience. It does not matter without chart numbers to back it up.
Five months. No word. That is the story.
Netflix · Dark Comedy · 44.19% · 2.26
Season 1 won 8 Emmys. Season 2 brought in Oscar Isaac and Carey Mulligan.
The audience dropped 58% from Season 1's opening week.
2.4 million views in week one. Two weeks on the English chart. Then gone.
89% on Rotten Tomatoes. Reviews do not renew shows. Viewers do.
Netflix · Crime Drama · 34.56% · 2.89
Hit No.1 globally in week two. 10.1 million views.
Fell 72% to 2.8 million by week three. Steepest drop on this list.
100% from critics. 49% from audiences. 6.5 on IMDb. Down 61 spots on popularity.
Critics loved it. The broader audience did not.
Netflix · Crime Drama · 29.65% · 3.37
12 days old. Netflix has not had time to decide.
Currently the #1 most popular title on all of IMDb.
At No.1 on the global chart and still climbing.
Rotten Tomatoes scores are average. The real-time audience interest is not.
Netflix · Action Drama · 28.28% · 3.54
58% on Rotten Tomatoes. Weakest critic score on this list.
7 weeks in the Global Top 10. Two of them at No.1.
Most sustained chart run of any undecided show this year. Popularity up 15 spots.
Audiences showed up. That is what Netflix counts.
Netflix · Korean Action Drama · 25.99% · 3.85
The safest show on this list. It is not close.
94% audience score on Rotten Tomatoes. 8.5 on IMDb.
Three weeks at No.1 on the non-English chart. 39.3 million views.
It premiered June 5. Netflix just has not had time yet. Every signal says renewal.
“
Netflix does not wait anymore. The first 28 days decide almost everything.
Boots doubled its audience and still got cut. What matters is month one, not the reviews.
If a show is not in the Top 10 within a week of launch, the decision is probably already made.”
Canada Sports Betting Data Analyst
Belfast and Beef are the shows to watch now, not later. Netflix does not send warnings before it cancels.
Teach You a Lesson, I Will Find You, and Man on Fire all point toward renewal. They have the one thing Netflix rewards: viewers who showed up in week one.
The next cancellation is never far away.
What we tracked. 52 Netflix originals as of June 30, 2026.
Confirmed shows. Official renewal = 0%. Official cancellation = 100%.
Undecided shows. Scored on four data points: Days Unresolved (35%), Weeks in Global Top 10 (25%), averaged RT critic, RT audience, and IMDb rating (25%), IMDb live popularity trend (15%). All figures verified directly from IMDb and Rotten Tomatoes on June 30, 2026.
What this is not. A comparative ranking. Not a guaranteed forecast.