Thanksgiving Survival Odds 2025
Which states are most likely to survive Thanksgiving dinner?
States are shaded by their estimated odds of surviving Thanksgiving without a major family feud — from pale sage (≈80%+ implied chance of a peaceful dinner) to deep cranberry (under 50%). Based on data around stress, politics, alcohol, and family tension, it’s part math, part mayhem — and should probably come with a side of pie.
Source: Action Network — Thanksgiving Survival Index 2025
States Least Likely to Survive Thanksgiving
Based on modeled, implied odds of surviving Thanksgiving dinner without a family blow-up.
| Rank (1 = worst) |
State | Est. Survival Prob. (%) | Implied Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | California | 47.6 | +110 |
| 2 | New Mexico | 47.9 | +109 |
| 3 | Nevada | 48.3 | +107 |
| 4 | Pennsylvania | 48.8 | +105 |
| 5 | Florida | 49.1 | +104 |
| 6 | Texas | 49.3 | +103 |
| 7 | New Jersey | 51.5 | -106 |
| 8 | North Carolina | 52.5 | -111 |
| 9 | Arizona | 53.0 | -113 |
| 10 | Wisconsin | 53.1 | -113 |
States Most Likely to Survive Thanksgiving
Based on modeled, implied odds of surviving Thanksgiving dinner without a family blow-up.
| Rank (1 = best) |
State | Est. Survival Prob. (%) | Implied Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | West Virginia | 88.6 | -776 |
| 2 | Wyoming | 87.2 | -680 |
| 3 | Idaho | 85.2 | -573 |
| 4 | Vermont | 84.0 | -524 |
| 5 | North Dakota | 83.9 | -522 |
| 6 | South Dakota | 81.8 | -449 |
| 7 | Hawaii | 81.0 | -425 |
| 8 | Nebraska | 77.5 | -344 |
| 9 | Mississippi | 76.9 | -333 |
| 10 | Alaska | 75.9 | -315 |
All figures represent model-based, implied probabilities and are not predictions for any specific household. Source: Action Network — Thanksgiving Survival Index 2025